Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 13.236698 15.127028 17.153620 19.483430 22.083217 24.890318 28.145805
2025-10-19 10.367168 12.927478 15.878321 19.512467 23.848086 28.834308 34.980859
2025-10-26 8.733136 11.529930 14.908098 19.255113 24.662992 31.129019 39.400740
2025-11-02 7.598588 10.563724 14.299132 19.296368 25.745202 33.719681 44.250043
2025-11-09 6.777813 9.857771 13.882154 19.448678 26.859273 36.286001 49.067777
2025-11-16 6.026540 9.146176 13.364256 19.382115 27.625968 38.386371 53.329565
2025-11-23 5.366109 8.478640 12.824753 19.206788 28.183618 40.180809 57.208204
2025-11-30 4.897851 8.032116 12.539831 19.335361 29.124651 42.487700 61.825080
2025-12-07 4.605288 7.812325 12.549693 19.861894 30.621958 45.588291 67.618903
2025-12-14 4.146779 7.289794 12.064481 19.617290 30.978265 47.087555 71.217783
2025-12-21 3.609482 6.587781 11.246823 18.806806 30.439024 47.261382 72.911433
2025-12-28 3.440066 6.469617 11.320560 19.351772 31.930454 50.403422 78.961274
2026-01-04 3.237628 6.283020 11.279181 19.724798 33.196562 53.295103 84.805900
2026-01-11 2.953490 5.928030 10.936183 19.591140 33.665560 55.012939 88.976767
2026-01-18 2.688629 5.579541 10.572869 19.390731 34.001414 56.519090 92.855048
2026-01-25 2.488106 5.328847 10.354835 19.411368 34.681038 58.564308 97.608545
2026-02-01 2.328841 5.139852 10.227804 19.572024 35.585805 60.980111 102.999305
2026-02-08 2.149477 4.893882 9.979231 19.502383 36.096249 62.780350 107.476098
2026-02-15 1.972060 4.633689 9.683714 19.327079 36.410906 64.265894 111.489111
2026-02-22 1.850644 4.475676 9.564761 19.456000 37.242281 66.605054 116.924157
2026-03-01 1.788066 4.435147 9.664462 19.985508 38.785587 70.155843 124.415308
2026-03-08 1.638957 4.193360 9.356807 19.739536 38.948951 71.417560 128.204052
2026-03-15 1.441814 3.823931 8.768221 18.924672 38.051799 70.856556 128.955200